Baku Says Azerbaijan and Armenia on Verge of Historic Peace Agreement

The authorities of Azerbaijan have announced “substantial progress” towards finalizing a peace agreement with Armenia. Speaking at a seminar at Hudson University on Tuesday, Elchin Amirbayov, the Special Representative of the President of Azerbaijan, stated that the two countries have never been closer to a peace deal.

“There is a historic opportunity right now for both countries to finally close the chapter of animosity and engage in changing the nature of the South Caucasus; to make it a place of good neighborhood, stability, and peace,” Amirbayov said.

Amirbayov emphasized that Baku and Yerevan have made significant strides in the normalization process since transitioning from mediated talks to “the most efficient and promising” direct bilateral negotiations.

“We hope that the remaining difficulties will be addressed properly in a short period of time and that we can attain a credible, durable and irreversible peace,” he added.

One major obstacle to finalizing the peace treaty is Armenia's Constitution which has references to the Declaration of Independence posing territorial claims against Azerbaijan as it endorses the unification of Azerbaijan’s Karabakh region with Armenia. President Ilham Aliyev recently highlighted in his speech in Shusha, the Karabakh region, that as long as this clause remains in Armenia’s Constitution, a peace agreement will not be possible as constitution is higher than any other document, including an international treaty.

In June, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan noted that a peace treaty with Azerbaijan was nearing completion but stressed that Armenia would not agree to Azerbaijan’s demand for a constitutional change. On July 5, Constitution Day in Armenia, Pashinyan emphasized the need for a new constitution that reflects the will and vision of the Armenian people.

Meanwhile, James O’Brien, the US Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs, underscored the key elements of the Azerbaijan-Armenia normalization process and affirmed Washington’s strong support for achieving peace in the South Caucasus. 

Speaking at a Senate Committee on Foreign Relations hearing on “The Future of Europe,” O’Brien noted that the US is actively facilitating the conclusion of a just and durable peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan. He highlighted the importance of both countries’ strong desire for peace as crucial for signing a peace agreement, which is essential for the region’s future.

O’Brien also pointed out the strategic significance of opening routes through Azerbaijan and Armenia. He noted that Central Asian countries, despite their wealth, currently rely on Russia and China for global market access. Opening these routes would reduce their dependence on Russia and China and provide more opportunities for entering global markets.

Armenia and Azerbaijan had long been at odds over the latter’s Karabakh (Garabagh) region. After the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, Armenia launched a full-scale war against Azerbaijan, which ended in a ceasefire in 1994. The bloody war led to the occupation of 20 percent of Azerbaijan’s internationally recognized territories by Armenia. Over 30,000 Azerbaijanis were killed, nearly 4,000 went missing, and one million were displaced in a brutal ethnic cleansing campaign conducted by Armenia.

On September 27, 2020, the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict intensified when Armenia’s forces deployed in occupied Azerbaijani lands shelled military positions and civilian settlements of Azerbaijan. During a 44-day counter-offensive, Azerbaijani forces liberated over 300 settlements, including the cities of Jabrayil, Fuzuli, Zangilan, Gubadli, and Shusha, from nearly 30 years of illegal Armenian occupation. The war concluded with a statement signed on November 10, 2020, under which Armenia returned the occupied Aghdam, Kalbajar, and Lachin districts to Azerbaijan.

Shortly after the 2020 war, Azerbaijani authorities expressed their readiness and determination to negotiate with Armenia to bring long-awaited peace to the region. In March 2022, Baku proposed five basic principles to Yerevan, including mutual recognition of territorial integrity and border delimitation.

Since the end of the war, there have been several high-level meetings between Azerbaijan and Armenia mediated by Russian, European, and American officials. However, as of December 2023, both sides have agreed to continue talks without mediators, hoping that this format will contribute more effectively to ending the decades-long stalemate.