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U.S. Intelligence Warns of Russian Retaliation if Ukraine Strikes with Western-Supplied Long-Range Missiles

By Vusala Abbasova September 27, 2024

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Tensions between the West and Russia have been rising for months. Media reports suggest that Moscow has been involved in secret negotiations, mediated by Iran, to supply anti-ship cruise missiles to Yemen’s Houthi forces. / Serhii Mykhalchuk / Global Images Ukraine via Getty Images

American intelligence agencies are cautioning that allowing Ukraine to use Western-supplied long-range missiles to strike deep into Russian territory could provoke a dangerous response from Moscow. Intelligence estimates suggest that such an escalation might prompt Russia to retaliate, potentially targeting the United States and its allies.

The warning was first reported by The New York Times on Thursday, citing sources familiar with the situation. According to the report, if President Joe Biden grants Kyiv permission to use these missiles, Russia may intensify covert operations in Europe, including acts of sabotage, and could even launch “potentially lethal attacks” on US and European military sites.

Tensions between the West and Russia have been rising for months. Media reports suggest that Moscow has been involved in secret negotiations, mediated by Iran, to supply anti-ship cruise missiles to Yemen’s Houthi forces. Both Russia and Iran have remained silent on these claims.

Biden’s advisors are reportedly concerned about recent remarks from Russian President Vladimir Putin, who warned NATO that allowing Ukraine to strike deeper into Russian territory would be viewed as an act of war.

“If this happens, NATO countries — the United States and European countries — are at war with Russia,” Putin told reporters on Thursday. “And if this is the case, we will make appropriate decisions in response to the threats.” 

The intelligence assessment also downplays the potential impact of long-range missiles on the conflict, noting that Ukraine has a limited supply and that it remains uncertain how many more the West would be willing to provide.

Amid these tensions, President Putin recently announced plans to update Russia’s nuclear weapons doctrine. The proposed revisions would allow Moscow to treat any attack by a non-nuclear country, if supported by a nuclear power, as a joint attack from both. This shift signals a potential change in how Russia might respond to external threats in the ongoing conflict with Ukraine.

Russia possesses the world’s largest stockpile of nuclear weapons, with an estimated 6,257 warheads. Under its current nuclear policy, Moscow reserves the right to use nuclear weapons in two scenarios: in response to a nuclear or mass destruction attack on Russia or its allies, or in the event of conventional aggression that threatens the state’s existence. However, the conflict in Ukraine has introduced new complexities, particularly with increasing Western involvement.

Since launching what he calls a “special military operation” in Ukraine, Putin has repeatedly hinted at the possibility of using nuclear weapons. Early in the invasion, he warned that any interference from the West would result in “consequences they have never seen.” Shortly after the offensive began on February 24, 2022, Putin ordered Russia’s nuclear deterrence forces to be put on high alert, raising global concerns about potential nuclear escalation. This move was strongly condemned by the US, the world’s second-largest nuclear power, with American officials calling it “totally unacceptable.”